Markets Insights

Details of 'phase one' trade deal remain in focus

Quiet week in terms of S'pore data releases; changes to FTSE indices take effect today

A shorter week awaits traders in most markets with the Christmas break on Wednesday. China and Japan are the notable exceptions.

While investors may be gearing up for the holidays, they are still likely to keep an eye on "phase one" of the United States-China trade deal, likely to be signed next month.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) economist Alvin Liew said: "Markets will continue to look out for details of the deal as we approach the signing deadline, but the consensus is that this is largely a done deal."

Last Friday, Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) was little moved before getting a late bump up to finish the week at 3,212.39, adding 4.97 points or 0.15 per cent.

This will be another quiet week in terms of economic data releases in Singapore. Last month's inflation data will be out today.

Mr Liew expects headline inflation for last month to increase 0.6 per cent year on year, from 0.4 per cent in October.

UOB forecasts core inflation, which strips out accommodation and private road transport costs, to rise 0.7 per cent year on year, from 0.6 per cent in October.

Industrial production data for last month will be out on Thursday, and Mr Liew expects this to dip 1.6 per cent year on year, from the 4 per cent gain in October.

FXTM market analyst Han Tan said: "The economic prints will be set against the optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal that's expected to be signed next month, with markets adopting a risk-on tone as fears over a global recession subside."

With changes to FTSE indices taking effect from today, traders noted that the newly added Singapore-listed entities could be seeing high institutional investor inflows.

From today, Mapletree Logistics Trust joins the STI in place of agribusiness company Golden Agri-Resources. US-focused office real estate investment trust (Reit) Manulife US Reit joins the FTSE EPRA Nareit Index.

Meanwhile, Sasseur Reit, which has retail outlet properties in China, will be added to the FTSE EPRA Nareit Global Emerging Index.

Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific, Taiwan's industrial production for last month, which UOB expects to edge up 0.1 per cent year on year, will be out today.

China's industrial profits for last month will be released on Friday.

On Saturday, Vietnam is set to release a slew of economic data to close the year out, led by gross domestic product for the fourth quarter and full year.

Vietnam's trade data, inflation, industrial production and retail sales figures for this month will be out on the same day.