THE Singapore economy may have narrowly avoided a technical recession in the third quarter, according to flash estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on Monday.
But the city-state’s gross domestic product (GDP) looks to have grown by just 0.1 per cent year on year in the July-to-September period, flat on the meagre expansion of 0.1 per cent posted in the second quarter.
The showing is still worse than expected - private-sector watchers had guided for growth of 0.2 per cent in a Bloomberg poll and 0.3 per cent in a Reuters poll - and Singapore faces tepid full-year growth of between zero and 1 per cent, according to earlier official forecasts.
Still, on a seasonally adjusted, quarterly basis, the GDP was up by 0.6 per cent, averting the technical recession that happens on two straight quarters of quarter-on-quarter decline.
The economy had declined by 2.7 per cent the previous quarter, as the figure was revised higher than an earlier print of 3.3 per cent contraction.
With a cyclical downturn in electronics exacerbated by the pressure of deteriorating relations between the United States and China, the latest slump was again led by the ailing manufacturing sector, where lower electronics, precision engineering and transport engineering productions eroded the higher output in chemicals, biomedical manufacturing and general manufacturing.
Manufacturing may have lost 3.5 per cent year on year, deepening from a revised 3.3 per cent drop in the second quarter. But, on a quarterly basis, the fall has moderated sharply to 0.4 per cent, from 4.2 per cent before.
The services industries scraped in with 0.9 per cent growth, against its expansion of 1.1 per cent previously, which represents quarter-on-quarter uptick of 0.7 per cent, with support from finance and insurance, business services, and other services industries.
Meanwhile, the resurgent construction sector appears to have grown by 2.7 per cent, compared with a revised 2.8 per cent before, as the pace of quarterly decline eased, from 5.3 per cent to 1.1 per cent. The MTI attributed the improvement to “a pickup in both public and private sector construction activities”.
Citing expectations of muted improvement next year, the central bank pulled back on the Singapore dollar’s rate of appreciation in a policy decision on Monday.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said that “the weakness in electronics production and its supporting industries in Singapore is likely to persist over the near term”, while the outlook for the retail industry has dimmed even as other domestic-facing sectors - education, health and social services - are expected to show “resilient” growth.
“Growth in the Singapore economy has slowed over the first three quarters of the year,” the MAS added. “It is expected to pick up modestly in 2020, although this projection is subject to considerable uncertainty in the external environment.”
The advance GDP estimates are largely based on data from July and August, and may be revised in the final print, which is due by the end of November.
OCBC Bank chief economist Selena Ling said in a note last week that the outlook for the final quarter remains dim, as “most composite leading indicators do not suggest a quick rebound is in store” even if the tensions between the United States and China, which have greatly depressed the global economy, are resolved by year-end.
“Given that global manufacturing momentum remains sluggish and the new orders books suggests pipeline is also soft, the challenge is probably not one of structural competitiveness at this juncture,” she added soberly.
Still, she noted that the very low base clocked in 2019 could make for “a modest improvement” in 2020 GDP growth, if trade relations and manufacturing performance stabilise.